BFS 2002

Poster Presentation

Causality and Cointegration in Stock Markets: The Case of Latin America

Benjamin Miranda Tabak, Eduardo Jose Aruajo Lima

This paper analyzes causality and cointegration relationships among stock markets for Latin America and the United States. Within a simple framework causality and cointegration is tested for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Venezuela and the US. We found no evidence of cointegration among these stock markets but short-run causality could not be rejected. Furthermore, we use impulse response functions to analyze the relative impact of shocks in the US stock index (Dow Jones) on Latin American indexes. Evidence suggests that the responses differ significantly among these countries. These findings imply that there are valuable opportunities to international investors from diversifying in US and Latin American stocks.